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Saturday, December 1, 2012

Numbers Don't Lie

A perplexing quandary has haunted my casual thoughts from time to time that speaks to many subjects.  World hunger, war, Politics, Finances and religion to name a few.  That question is "How can so many people faced with the same information and evidence come to such diverse conclusions?"
One such can of worms was opened in a recent post I made regarding our current financial crisis.  Thankfully mine was not the only opinion to be featured solo as a couple good folk chimed in with their opinions.  Now it is my usual fashion to respond, in kind in the opinion column but they brought up such good conflicting viewpoints I felt it would be prudent to re post them here.
Then respond in my own thought provoking way.

Poor misguided soul you are.

Investment in the USA will just fall through the floor with the logic of slapping all the investors of the world with more taxes.

folks that have worked their way into position to make over the $250k will not even bother investing and creating jobs. They simply will walk away. workers will start losing more jobs ...... You will have no more customers to purchase your products you sell and then you will be asking yourself how you will make it.


Now, not to be outdone...

Sorry, but I gotta disagree with you there, Anonymous. Corporate profits are at an all time high, but we here closer to the ground have yet to see an advantage. The myth of "job creators" has been repeatedly and thoroughly debunked, and the fact that people like you are still arguing for this spectacularly failed economic paradigm only goes to show how effectively the lie has been promulgated.

I say we link arms and go over the "fiscal cliff" (which is really more like a curb, but whatever; the rhetoric is what it is). The Republicans want to play chicken, and I say we take them on. Is it POSSIBLE that our taxes will go up? Sure - but it's also just as likely that the backlash will be so severe that a) the tax code will be retroactively amended (remember, this is for tax year 2013, which won't have to be settled until April '14. It'll be an accounting NIGHTMARE, but it IS possible for Congress to amend the tax code at any point before that) and b) will piss off so many people that the 20114 elections - in which ALL 435 House seats are up - will result in a massive lay-off of the obstructionists using this sort of thing for their own political power.



So OK...Let me see if I can quantify my response in relatively easy to understand parables, as I tend to be long winded on these subjects.
In a word "Top Down" growth does not work.  Putting an enormous amount of wealth in the hands of so few does nothing to elevate the general population.
Now yes, if someone works hard and builds their wealth they deserve it. And yes, if a company is productive they expand and in expanding create more jobs.  But here's where it gets fuzzy.  Most major corporations are looking at the bottom line, as in  "how do we add a 1/4 of a point to our investors stock options?" Job cuts are most probably the first option.
During the Clinton administration we saw an enormous amount of growth and prosperity and that was when the tax rates for everyone were MUCH higher then they are now!  And even more importantly were much higher then the current proposed "tax hike" This time of joyous prosperity saw Clinton leaving office with an estimated budget surplus of 1.7 trillion dollars.
Then came the Bush regime.  Not only did his dirty little wars depleted much of that windfall but his incessant tax rebates (yes I did like my $1500.00 check but I hear tell corporations got A LOT more then that) and pretty soon we were WAY in deficit land!
Then came the Great Recession!
Surprise, surprise.
Now, as to the idea that allowing major corps to keep more money as incentive to add more jobs?  Let's look at a few recent examples.  First, during the many "ill advised bail outs that Obama gave out (auto manufactures not with standing) some executives took the cash and gave themselves BIG bonuses, planned executive retreats in the tropic with intimate Jimmy Buffet concerts to name a few "wise" investments in our countries future! SO much for trusting them to do the "right" thing.
ALSO.  Over the last year out of all the figures coming out of the corporate sector they estimated an average of 18% growth in employee productivity.  Sounds good, hunh?  Well, let's dissect that figure for a moment.  Most companies were laying off, on average 47% of their work force.  That's almost HALF.  So in the face of such staggering, impending unemployment those folks remaining at the job were faced with a choice.  As more oppressive work loads were thrown their way it was made very clear to them that if they couldn't handle it there were MANY folks waiting in the wings to take over their jobs that could handle it.  The end result was that someone on salary used to working 40 hours a week were now working 60 plus hours a week, with no increase in pay!  And trust me, there was no point in risking a complaint.  Just look at Hostess, when the crews went out on strike they just closed up shop, filed for bankruptcy and paid their executives hefty bonuses to stay on to break up the companies assets to sell to the highest bidder. Now as the economy has improved and companies are slowly coming back and beginning to show profits are they reinvesting it back into their work force? Hiring on new workers? NOT to the extant that the money would facilitate.  Oh NO!  This time has shown that given the right incentive and motivation their remaining employees would continue to produce at the same back breaking pace for as long as they can perpetuated job insecurity.
ALSO.  Think about tax refund time.  What happens in February through April of each year when the tax return checks start to flow in.  Well the average American worker takes their windfall and spends it.  In the American economy.  They don't plop it in an off shore tax dodging Cayman Island account (HEY Mr. Romney!) No they reinvest it into our very economy!  We for one used our tax refund from 2010 to open up our shop!  And I know of many folks who in some ways did the same.  Would a major corp do that? Doubtful.  I'm sorry but there is no data to support that higher taxes impedes growth, adversely it inspires creativity.  Some of which may not necessarily be on the up and up, but that's one way in which successful business remain successful. Creative accounting.
Growth MUST start at the bottom.  Small business incentives, allowing the working class to keep more of their money in order to ensure that they flourish.  Yes the business must remain to employee, but coming from an old carpenter....
 "No building, regardless of how large, or majestic it may be will stand if not built on a sturdy foundation"

No as far as our little ongoing venture!  Would like to give many thanks to all the folks coming out yesterday and today and blessing us with their patronage.  Made for a fantastic end to the week!  Would have mentioned it yesterday but as stated a LOT of folks came out on Friday especially with a plethora of repairs leaving this old boy a wee bit tuckered out, and after celebrating Momma's Birthday I just done passed out! So forgive me if I left anyone feeling shunned.  Many a ride found new homes and we are working away on some new goodies to be premiered next week!  Keep an eye out for them sweeties!
So that's it for now.  Have been talked into watching "Abraham Lincoln, Vampire Hunter"  Yes.  That's what I said.  Hey could be worse. Could be "Abraham Lincoln, Zombie Hunter"
Seriously.
These movies actually exist.
Night y'all!

2 comments:

  1. Check this out - just what you were talking about!
    http://www.businessinsider.com/profits-versus-wages

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  2. Thank you for the valuable validation of my view point. As i said, basic economic principals of reasonable sustained growth and realistic long term wealth growth seems to escape those on the right who continue to lobby for the mega corps. But again we can understand their motivation. Just look at retired polititians who enjoy HIGH paying "advisory" positions for many of the major corporations they spent their carrers running and gunning for. What surprises me is 48% of the voting public is Republican yet of that there is a very minute population who would actually benefit from this, and yet still vote for their policy.

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